Making New Year’s resolutions last

New Year’s resolutions are widely regarded as unlikely to succeed, yet the research paints a more nuanced picture. Dai, Milkman and Riis showed that people are more likely to pursue new goals after salient points in the calendar, a phenomenon they termed the fresh start effect. In their data, such points were followed by increases in, among other things, web searches for dieting and visits to a university gym [1]. The authors attribute this to a new period creating psychological distance from past failures.

The effect is not limited to the new year. It was equally evident at the start of a week or month and after birthdays [1].

Making a firm commitment also matters in itself. Norcross, Mrykalo and Blagys followed people with New Year’s resolutions over several months and compared them with people who sought a similar change without formally committing to it. After six months, just over 40 per cent of the first group were still keeping their resolution, compared with around 4 per cent of the comparison group [2].

1. Frame resolutions as approach goals

In a study of more than 1,000 participants in Sweden, 58.9 per cent rated their resolution as successful after one year when it was framed as an approach goal, that is, aimed at adopting a new behaviour. For avoidance goals, intended to stop an existing behaviour, the figure was 47.1 per cent [3]. A resolution such as “read for half an hour in the evening” is therefore more promising than “spend less time on my phone”.

2. Set measurable goals

A resolution such as “do more sport” cannot be assessed unambiguously, as no benchmark has been defined. With a goal such as “8,000 steps a day”, by contrast, it is clear at the end of each day whether it has been met. Measurable goals also prevent less successful days from being judged generously in hindsight.

3. Make concrete if-then plans

Implementation intentions specify in advance the situation in which a particular action will be taken, for example: “When I get home from work, I will put on my running shoes first.” A meta-analysis by Gollwitzer and Sheeran of 94 studies found a medium-to-large effect on goal attainment [4]. Their effectiveness rests on the decision having been made before motivation wanes at the critical moment.

4. Allow for realistic time frames

The frequently cited figure of 21 days to form a habit is not supported by scientific evidence. In a study at University College London, the median time for a new daily behaviour to become largely automatic was 66 days, with an estimated range of 18 to 254 days [5]. The figure is based on a small sample and should be understood as a guide. It nevertheless makes clear that difficulties in the first weeks are to be expected and do not indicate failure.

5. Plan for individual interruptions

In the same study, missing a single day had only a negligible effect on habit formation [5]. More problematic is the tendency to abandon a resolution altogether after a single lapse. Exceptions such as illness or holidays should therefore be planned for from the outset. The study does not address longer interruptions.

A resolution has no consequences if it is not kept, which is why it is easily postponed. A financial stake changes this, as postponement is tied to an amount set in advance. Behavioural economics refers to this as a commitment device. Giné, Karlan and Zinman studied an account for smokers in the Philippines whose balance was forfeited if a nicotine test was failed after six months. Participants with this account were significantly more likely to pass the test than the comparison group, and the effect was confirmed in an unannounced follow-up test six months later [6].

Tensio is an app for Android and iPhone that combines resolutions with a financial stake. You choose a goal from a catalogue of 42 goals whose completion the app verifies itself, for example 8,000 steps a day or a maximum of two hours of screen time, and set an amount. If a check-in is missed, 80 per cent of the stake goes to an organisation chosen in advance.

• Verification is based on Health Connect, the phone’s usage data, location, a wake check after the alarm or GitHub.
• In donation mode, three free pause jokers per month are available for holidays and illness.
• Up to five active goals are free, and the minimum stake is €2.49.

How Tensio verifies goals

1. Dai, H., Milkman, K. L. & Riis, J. (2014). The Fresh Start Effect: Temporal Landmarks Motivate Aspirational Behavior. Management Science, 60(10), 2563-2582. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2014.1901
2. Norcross, J. C., Mrykalo, M. S. & Blagys, M. D. (2002). Auld Lang Syne: Success predictors, change processes, and self-reported outcomes of New Year’s resolvers and nonresolvers. Journal of Clinical Psychology, 58(4), 397-405. doi:10.1002/jclp.1151
3. Oscarsson, M., Carlbring, P., Andersson, G. & Rozental, A. (2020). A large-scale experiment on New Year’s resolutions: Approach-oriented goals are more successful than avoidance-oriented goals. PLOS ONE, 15(12), e0234097. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0234097
4. Gollwitzer, P. M. & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation Intentions and Goal Achievement: A Meta-analysis of Effects and Processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69-119. doi:10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1
5. Lally, P., van Jaarsveld, C. H. M., Potts, H. W. W. & Wardle, J. (2010). How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world. European Journal of Social Psychology, 40(6), 998-1009. doi:10.1002/ejsp.674
6. Giné, X., Karlan, D. & Zinman, J. (2010). Put Your Money Where Your Butt Is: A Commitment Contract for Smoking Cessation. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(4), 213-235. doi:10.1257/app.2.4.213